President Obama’s approval rating has continued to improve in recent months and he’s now in better shape heading into the fall, according to recent polls.
A Gallup quarterly average poll showed Obama holds an average approval rating of 46.8 percent in the 14th quarter of his presidency and is currently outpacing the likes of former Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush – who were the last incumbents to lose their reelection bids.
Obama’s quarterly approval rating has steadily increased for the three consecutive quarters after falling to a 41 percent low in his 11th quarter last fall.
The figures are a good sign for the incumbent president but he has not seen approval ratings above the coveted 50 percent mark that effectively ensures a president a second term. In fact, Obama hasn’t seen figures that high since his first year in office.
At this point in his reelection bid, Obama’s immediate predecessor George W. Bush was holding a 47.9 percent quarterly average approval rating and he emerged victorious by a narrow margin against Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004.
Obama’s approval rating, however, is not likely to see any dramatic improvements over the next three months. Figures show that the largest statistical boost any incumbent has seen between the 14th and 15th quarters was 2.3 percent for George W. Bush while his father, George H.W. Bush, saw a 4 percent drop in that same period.
If the president’s approval rating continue to increase in the 15th quarter – which spans from late July through Oct. 19, just two weeks before the election – he will improve his chances in November. In contrast, should those numbers dive in the coming months, a second term will become less likely.